Calculator updated with the dataset 1871 - 2025.
The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the maximum rate at which a retiree can withdraw money from a retirement account each year with a low risk of depleting the funds during their lifetime.
This interactive calculator allows you to run your own simulations based on historical data for various asset classes. You can adjust the simulation parameters, such as the number of years, the withdrawal rate, and the portfolio allocation, to see how these changes affect the success rate.
Try it yourself!
Safe Withdrawal Rate Calculator
Total Expense Ratio
Portfolio Allocation
Quick Start - How to use this calculator
For a comprehensive guide, refer to the SWR Calculator Guide.
- Enter your Initial Value, Years (horizon), and Withdrawal Rate (%).
- Set your Start Year and End Year to define the historical window.
- Choose your Withdrawal Frequency, Inflation Adjustment, and Rebalancing Strategy.
- Build your Portfolio allocation; allocations must sum to exactly 100%.
- Optionally set Annual Fees (%).
- Click Calculate. The tool runs monthly rolling simulations and shows success probability plus summary statistics.
Notes:
- This calculator runs historical rolling-window simulations using embedded monthly return series. It does NOT run Monte Carlo simulations. I will have a separate calculator for that. Withdrawals can be inflation-adjusted (or not), and the portfolio can be rebalanced yearly or not at all.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a safe withdrawal rate?
It is the maximum percentage you can withdraw each year with a low risk of running out of money over your retirement. The classic figure is 4%, but the right number depends on your horizon and portfolio.
How does this calculator test withdrawal rates?
It runs historical rolling-window simulations using real monthly return data from 1871 to 2025, then reports the success rate for your withdrawal rate, horizon, and allocation.
Is this a Monte Carlo simulation?
No. This one uses actual historical sequences, not randomized ones. For randomized thousands-of-scenarios modeling, use the separate Monte Carlo Retirement Calculator.
What withdrawal rate is safe for early retirement?
The longer the horizon, the lower the safe rate. Early retirees planning 40-plus years often use 3 to 3.5% rather than the traditional 4%, which was built for a 30-year retirement.
Should my withdrawals be inflation-adjusted?
Usually yes, so your spending power holds over time. The calculator lets you toggle inflation adjustment and yearly rebalancing to see how each changes your success rate.
Disclaimer: This calculator reflects my personal views and is for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Every situation is different. Always check your country's specific tax and investment rules before acting. See the full Disclaimer and Privacy Policy for the long version.
